Well, I held on to some of my stocks (all extremely high volatility) and in this market, they became even crazier. I monitor them daily. But I keep holding with cash on hand to see how they specifically react to every announcement and drop or rise of the indexes and I more or less see how things will go. The rest is speculative trading based on their performance. To sum it up, I thought they had reached the Cute Seniors 2020 Worst Ending Ever Shirt. Puts it is. I think I agree, but last week made things much more complicated. I want to be bearish for this coming week- it makes sense that things will drop after the stimulus hangover wears off and bad data keeps rolling in. But I lost some winnings on inverse ETFs last week.
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Prepare for the double-dip this week or next. The same thing happens in 2008. Plus at the peak of the 2008 recession, unemployment hit 700K. We’re looking at a Cute Seniors 2020 Worst Ending Ever Shirt. The mortgage market is going to be screwed again too. These are some crazy, complex times – makes 2008 seem relatively simple. The market’s not dumb. If they back off on lockdowns, things will get worse. Yes, people would return to work and productivity would temporarily spike. But it would doom us in that COVID-19 would 100% overwhelm our hospital system. And the long-term economic impact would be unheard of. I highly doubt it. Many of them are requesting the Army Corps of Engineers for temporary hospitals.
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If a company “misses” earnings estimate the reaction is usually more negative than it would be positive if they “make” or “beat” earnings projections. This is because a company should be able to meet earnings in a quarter pretty easily by manipulating how they report revenues (yes that’s legal). Or buy “buying” revenue with marketing or promotions. If a Cute Seniors 2020 Worst Ending Ever Shirt still fails to meet earnings, investors see that as a signal. There is something very wrong internally, whereas if they meet or beat earnings that are seen as business as usual. Sometimes a stock can even fall during a mild earnings beat. Of course with the virus investor behavior can be different.
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